وقع نقاش في آخر شهر سبتمبر الجاري في مركز بحوث غير حكومي (ثينك تانك) "مجلس سياسة الشرق الأوسط" يصدر مجلة مهمة و لو أنها ليست بشهرة المجلات الأمريكية الأخرى المختصة في الشؤون الخارجية حيث تجمع بين مختصين أكادميين و سياسيين من النوع الذين يهتمون كثيرا بالمعرفة الأكاديمية عند صياغة مواقفهم السياسية.... هذا النقاش (في شكل ندوة) كان حول منطقة المغرب العربي و تقييم للوضع الراهن بما في ذلك معضلة علاقة الانفتاح الاقتصادي بالانفتاح السياسي... و تعرض المتكلمون و كذلك الحاضرون في قاعة الندوة للمثال التونسي أكثر من مرة... و من بين أهم ما قيل هو المفارقة التي لمحت اليها في مقالي حول الديمقراطية و هي مسألة "النمو الاقتصادي كعائق أمام الانفتاح السياسي"... و مقارنة ذلك (مع الفروق طبعا) مع النموذج الصيني.. و بالرغم أنه من البديهي أنه لا يوجد نمو اقتصادي كبير و ذي تأثير ضخم على الواقع التونسي المعيش بالمقياس الصيني إلا أنه لا يمكن تجاهل الفروق الكبيرة بين الوضع الاقتصادي التونسي خاصة مع أواسط الثمانينات و الواقع مثلما بدأ في التغير منذ أواسط التسعينات.... أعرض هنا الفقرات الخاصة بهذه النقطة
MR. FREEMAN: Dave Sorenson wants to comment on the specifics.
MR. SORENSON: Quick comment on Tunisia and transparency and accountability in North Africa. I've heard the argument, and I've heard it several places, that it is partly a function of economic progress, that the demand for democratization has been very high in places like Yemen and the Palestinian Authority because people are so poor. In Tunisia, the demand is less because people are doing so well. Some have argued it's a measure of the success of the Tunisian economy that has, in a sense, dampened down the demand for more political openness and transparency. I'm not saying that's true, but I think it's an interesting question, and I think it needs more exploration.
MR. FREEMAN: Maybe that's the Chinese model that was referred to, because if living standards go up, as they do in China, at the rate of 17 percent a year, and if the GDP in 29 years is 58 times what it was 29 years ago, then people are reasonably content and don't demand new management when the current management is doing so well. So perhaps this is, again, a half-empty, half-filled cup.
MR. FREEMAN: Dave Sorenson wants to comment on the specifics.
MR. SORENSON: Quick comment on Tunisia and transparency and accountability in North Africa. I've heard the argument, and I've heard it several places, that it is partly a function of economic progress, that the demand for democratization has been very high in places like Yemen and the Palestinian Authority because people are so poor. In Tunisia, the demand is less because people are doing so well. Some have argued it's a measure of the success of the Tunisian economy that has, in a sense, dampened down the demand for more political openness and transparency. I'm not saying that's true, but I think it's an interesting question, and I think it needs more exploration.
MR. FREEMAN: Maybe that's the Chinese model that was referred to, because if living standards go up, as they do in China, at the rate of 17 percent a year, and if the GDP in 29 years is 58 times what it was 29 years ago, then people are reasonably content and don't demand new management when the current management is doing so well. So perhaps this is, again, a half-empty, half-filled cup.
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