نشرت جريدة "الصباح الأسبوعي" اليوم خبر صغير تحت عنوان "تقرير دولي مفزع عن السياحة التونسية" (هنا) في رأس صفحتها الالكترونية (كالعادة ما فماش إشارة ليه في الصفحة الرئيسية للنسخة الورقية... بالنسبة لموضوع الاختلاف بين الورقي و الالكتروني في نفس الصحيفة كنت تحدثت عليه في مدونة بودورو هنا)... الخبر مثير للانتباه لأنو يذكر تقرير لمنظمة دولية مختصة في التقييم الاقتصادي (منظمة فيتش رايتينغس) يتميز بتقييم سلبي لواقع السياحة التونسية في الوقت إلي تركز فيه الصحف عادة كان على التقارير الإيجابية إلي هي طبعا تقارير تستحق التنويه كيف المؤشر متاع الهريتاج فاوندايشن حول الحرية الإقتصادية (مؤشر معروف و عندو مصداقية) إلي ترتيب تونس فيه محترم نسبة الى بقية الدول و وقع تصنيفها من جملة الدول "الحرة (إقتصاديا) بشكل معتدل" (هنا) و إلي تحدثت عليه اليوم جريدة العرب (هنا).... على كل حال بما أنو خبر جريدة الصباح الأسبوعي صغير كان يلزم أني نطلع على التقرير هذا مباشرة بش نفهم آش فيه (نسخة من التقريرإلي صدر في 12 ديسمبر هنا)... بالمناسبة إلي أعدو التقرير توانسة يخدمو في منظمة التقييم الاقتصادي هذية... و التقييم معمول بطريقة حرفية... أهم المشاكل إلي يذكرها هو تقلص عدد السواح و نسبة المردودية المالية متاعهم... تأخر السياحة التونسية عن تطور السياحة المنافسة ليها في مصر و تركيا و المغرب.... قلة التنويع في المنتوج السياحي بالرغم المجهود الحاصل في الاتجاه هذاية... و عدم الاهتمام الكافي بالسائح التونسي مقابل التركيز على السائح الأوروبي على حساب بقية الأسواق الأجنبية.... هذية مقتطفات من التقرير
Controversial Industry Performance
The overall picture of the Tunisian tourist industry appears positive at first glance.
The number of visitors hit a record 6.5 million in 2006, bed nights have been
recovering since 2004, and foreign currency revenues have reached unprecedented
levels.
Yet these figures hide various factors: a reduced tourist average stay through the
2000‐2006 period, which fell to 5.2 days from 6.6; lower occupancy rates, down to
43.5% from 50.6%; and negligible progress in revenue per tourist, barely rising to
TND431 from TND414.
While the reduced average stay is consistent with a global trend towards
shorter/more frequent holidays, the trend in revenue per tourist is quite an issue
for the industry. The limited progress (+4%) in revenue per tourist expressed in local
currency hides the positive impact of the dinar’ depreciation by almost 32% against
the euro since 2000. In real terms, revenue per tourist would have fallen below
TND400, as evidence of a noticeable decrease over recent years
Moreover, the Tunisian tourist industry performance does not seem particularly
glorious when compared with that of other emerging Mediterranean countries such
as Turkey, Morocco and Egypt.
Between 2000 and 2005, Tunisia lost around 5.3% of its regional market share while
Turkey’s regional market share progressed by some 9.9%. Besides, Tunisia’s receipts
per international tourist are the lowest among its Mediterranean competitors,
emphasizing the country’s image of a low‐cost destination.
Tunisia focused in the 1980s and 1990s on exclusively developing its seaside offering.
Diversification trends appeared only recently, and remain insufficient. Turkey and
Egypt, on the contrary, chose early on to develop a wider range of products —profiting, among other things, from their valuable cultural image. These countries
developed a great variety of auxiliary products and niche markets (golf, health
centres, business infrastructure). These efforts helped to reinforce these countries’relative industry positioning and to enrich the destination image.
Changing Tourist Profile
Tunisian tourism has historically been highly dependent on European markets.
German, French and Italian nationals combined accounted for 48% of total visitors
in 2000, and contributed to 65% of bed nights. These figures, however, dropped to
34% and 52%, respectively, in 2006 due to increasing international competition and
a fading appeal of the destination.
Tunisia has increasingly attracted more North African visitors (mainly Libyan and
Algerian) during the last five years, and the proportion of visitors from these
countries stood at 37% of total visitors in 2006. Nonetheless, their contribution to
2006 bed nights remains low, at 2.9%. While the country’s capacity to effortlessly
attract an increasing number of North African visitors is a plus for the overall
economy (the advertising budget for these market is nil), this does not compensate
for the shortfall from European visitors’ bed nights. The existing hotel
infrastructure does not respond to the profile of North African visitors, and lacks
capacity as being able to cater for large families and long‐stay accommodation —meaning that these visitors tend to rent private properties instead.
The industry seems quite sceptical as to the sustainability of the North African
demand: 1) the development of the tourist infrastructure in these countries would
motivate inland holidays in the future, and 2) health tourism being the main
motivation for Libyan tourists, it could fade with the development of the Libyan
medical infrastructure. Yet Fitch highlights that these markets may represent a
valuable opportunity for Tunisian tourism development in the coming decades, due
to the scale of the potential demand and the sustained development of these
countries’ purchasing power. Such opportunities should not be ignored.
Domestic tourism remains marginal in comparison with foreign demand, due to the
tightness of the local market (around 10 million inhabitants) and historical
negligence of domestic tourism by the industry and the authorities. As a result,
domestic tourism was not able to support the industry at times of international
crisis or to compensate for the ensuing shortfalls. Domestic clients’ share of bed
nights increased to 9% and 10%, respectively, in 2002 and 2003, from only 6.4% in
2000, as local hotels tried to attract domestic clients via price reductions amid the
falling number of tourists. Besides, holiday departures tend to concentrate on the
high season when hotel occupancy rates are high. The development of domestic
tourism outside of the high season could help to reduce hotels’ revenue seasonality.
Yet efforts are required in order to adapt the accommodation to domestic demand
requirements (very similar to North African tourists’ preferences) and to structure
distribution via specialised agencies. The government’s target is to lift domestic
clients’ share of bed nights to 15% by 2016.
Controversial Industry Performance
The overall picture of the Tunisian tourist industry appears positive at first glance.
The number of visitors hit a record 6.5 million in 2006, bed nights have been
recovering since 2004, and foreign currency revenues have reached unprecedented
levels.
Yet these figures hide various factors: a reduced tourist average stay through the
2000‐2006 period, which fell to 5.2 days from 6.6; lower occupancy rates, down to
43.5% from 50.6%; and negligible progress in revenue per tourist, barely rising to
TND431 from TND414.
While the reduced average stay is consistent with a global trend towards
shorter/more frequent holidays, the trend in revenue per tourist is quite an issue
for the industry. The limited progress (+4%) in revenue per tourist expressed in local
currency hides the positive impact of the dinar’ depreciation by almost 32% against
the euro since 2000. In real terms, revenue per tourist would have fallen below
TND400, as evidence of a noticeable decrease over recent years
Moreover, the Tunisian tourist industry performance does not seem particularly
glorious when compared with that of other emerging Mediterranean countries such
as Turkey, Morocco and Egypt.
Between 2000 and 2005, Tunisia lost around 5.3% of its regional market share while
Turkey’s regional market share progressed by some 9.9%. Besides, Tunisia’s receipts
per international tourist are the lowest among its Mediterranean competitors,
emphasizing the country’s image of a low‐cost destination.
Tunisia focused in the 1980s and 1990s on exclusively developing its seaside offering.
Diversification trends appeared only recently, and remain insufficient. Turkey and
Egypt, on the contrary, chose early on to develop a wider range of products —profiting, among other things, from their valuable cultural image. These countries
developed a great variety of auxiliary products and niche markets (golf, health
centres, business infrastructure). These efforts helped to reinforce these countries’relative industry positioning and to enrich the destination image.
Changing Tourist Profile
Tunisian tourism has historically been highly dependent on European markets.
German, French and Italian nationals combined accounted for 48% of total visitors
in 2000, and contributed to 65% of bed nights. These figures, however, dropped to
34% and 52%, respectively, in 2006 due to increasing international competition and
a fading appeal of the destination.
Tunisia has increasingly attracted more North African visitors (mainly Libyan and
Algerian) during the last five years, and the proportion of visitors from these
countries stood at 37% of total visitors in 2006. Nonetheless, their contribution to
2006 bed nights remains low, at 2.9%. While the country’s capacity to effortlessly
attract an increasing number of North African visitors is a plus for the overall
economy (the advertising budget for these market is nil), this does not compensate
for the shortfall from European visitors’ bed nights. The existing hotel
infrastructure does not respond to the profile of North African visitors, and lacks
capacity as being able to cater for large families and long‐stay accommodation —meaning that these visitors tend to rent private properties instead.
The industry seems quite sceptical as to the sustainability of the North African
demand: 1) the development of the tourist infrastructure in these countries would
motivate inland holidays in the future, and 2) health tourism being the main
motivation for Libyan tourists, it could fade with the development of the Libyan
medical infrastructure. Yet Fitch highlights that these markets may represent a
valuable opportunity for Tunisian tourism development in the coming decades, due
to the scale of the potential demand and the sustained development of these
countries’ purchasing power. Such opportunities should not be ignored.
Domestic tourism remains marginal in comparison with foreign demand, due to the
tightness of the local market (around 10 million inhabitants) and historical
negligence of domestic tourism by the industry and the authorities. As a result,
domestic tourism was not able to support the industry at times of international
crisis or to compensate for the ensuing shortfalls. Domestic clients’ share of bed
nights increased to 9% and 10%, respectively, in 2002 and 2003, from only 6.4% in
2000, as local hotels tried to attract domestic clients via price reductions amid the
falling number of tourists. Besides, holiday departures tend to concentrate on the
high season when hotel occupancy rates are high. The development of domestic
tourism outside of the high season could help to reduce hotels’ revenue seasonality.
Yet efforts are required in order to adapt the accommodation to domestic demand
requirements (very similar to North African tourists’ preferences) and to structure
distribution via specialised agencies. The government’s target is to lift domestic
clients’ share of bed nights to 15% by 2016.
Fitch is one of the most respected credit rating companies along with S&P and Moody. I think such report will have negative impact on foreign investment in tourism in TN. I hope not though!
أهلا طارق,
ممكن وجهة النّظر متاعي حول الموضوع هذا تظهر خياليّة ومبالغ فيها شويّة. أما حسب رايي, يلزم إعتماد الإقتصاد متاعنا على السّياحة يقلّ وما فيها باس كان يختفي.
السّياحة قطاع متذبذب ما يساعدش على وضع مخطّطات تنمية للمدى الطويل.
من جهة أخرى, وكيما يقول التقرير في مثال السّياحة الطّبية, الأمر مرهون بدوام تدهور الميدان الطّبّي في ليبيا. معناها بالفلّاقي: "طول ما الطّبّ في ليبيا سعدو مكبوب, أمورنا أحنا تبقى في العنبر. ونهار اللّي يولّي عندهم أطبّاء ومستشفيات, شطر المصحّات متاعنا تو تسكّر". شنعملوا زعمة, ندعيوا ان شاء الله ديما اللّيبيّين عندهم شويّة طبّة وبرشة فلوس باش مصحّاتنا ما تسكّرش؟ المثال هذا ممكن تعميمو على باقي أنواع السّياحة: مثلا مجيئ السّياح الجزائريّين مرهون بدوام تفجّر الأوضاع بالجزائر... حتى بالنسبة للأوروبيّين, الأغلبيّة يجيوا بحثا عن الطقس الجميل والشّواطئ الخلّابة. نفس الطقس والشواطئ موجودة بكميّات أوفر في ليبيا وفي الجزائر اللّي السّيّاح ما يمشيولهمش لأسباب معروفة. ماعناها ديما نرجعوا إلى أنّو السّعادة والإزدهار متاعنا -- في ظل الإعتماد الكلّي على السياحة -- يعتمدوا بشكل أساسي على بؤس وإنحطاط الغير.
هذا ما يعنيش اللّي يلزم نتخلّاو على السّياحة, بالعكس. لكن حسب رايي, إذا باش نعملوا بالتقرير هذا يلزمنا حاجة من اثنين:
1- يا إمّا نعملوا على بقاء بلادنا العزيزة وجهة مفضّلة للسيّاح وذلك بتحسين جودة الخدمات, فتح المجال أمام قطاعات جديدة مثل السياحة الجنسية وغيرها (يلزم نقراوا حساب دخول البلدان الآسيوية الخبيرة في هذا المضمار للمنافسة). وخصوصا, العمل على بقاء الأوضاع على ما هي عليه (متفجّرة) في البلدان الشّقيقة المنافسة,
2- ديما نحطّوا في بالنا أنو السياحة مورد رزق وقتي في انتظار ما هو أهم وأدوم وأقل اضطراب (الصناعة, البحث العلمي...) وما يلزمش نغترّوا بسنوات تكثر فيها موارد السّياحة فنسيّبوا الميادين الأكثر أهميّة ونركزوا على السيّاحة.
سمسوم حتى أنا ماذابية التقرير ما يأديش لنتائج سلبية رغم أهمية الطرف إلي أصدرو...
بشير: تحليل في بلاصتو... حتى أفضل النماذج السياحية من حيث القيمة المالية و السياحية (إسبانيا و تركيا و اليونان..) السياحة فيها ماهياش أهم القطاعات... لكن الحقيقة بالنسبة لتونس كان فمة ديما من وقت بن صالح حتاش لتوة من أجل تقوية القطاع الأخرى... مثلا قطاع الخدمات ممكن يشهد نهضة في إطار مروح البحيرة الجنوبية
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